M. Shahidul Islam

The mismanagement of the Awami League-led regime is becoming as unruly like sliding potatoes from a derailed carriage. And, nowhere this drawback is as starkly evident as are in the fields of national defence and geopolitics.

The governments of India and Bangladesh are pursuing a strategy rather aggressively to connect Indian Northeast with the mainland via Bangladesh, without any profound thoughts having been accorded to the likely ramifications of such moves on our vital national interests.

In delving matters as serious as these, one must be candid. Fact is: Bangladesh has no interest in siding militarily with either of the global or regional protagonists at a time when our fundamental preoccupation should be the consolidation of national sovereignty as an upcoming nation of 150 million strong. Yet, when China and India are found to be preparing to lock horns in a military showdown which could end up with nuclear exchanges between the two military giants, Dhaka and Delhi are busy in paving ways for movement of Indian goods and merchandises to the troubled northeast via Bangladesh.

Many say that purported economic posturing is a mere facade and the exterior of a menacing syndrome which has much to do with Indian military preparedness against China and, Delhi's desperate quest to emerge as a military super power.

That is why the Bangladesh – India borders are being turned as staging posts and conduits for conveying military hardware and forces from mainland India to the troubled seven sisters, something that could trigger economic and military reprisals against Bangladesh from China and its regional allies.

There are signs that it could also provoke revenge attacks from the North Eastern insurgents fighting for decades to liberate themselves from Delhi's tutelage.

That being the raw reality, so to speak, it comes as a surprise that, the grand connectivity scheme included in the proposed Asian highway aside, a cobweb of other connectivity dots are being hastily joined together at the strategic spots of the nation's mutual borders. These hasty moves have much to do with military preparation of India and the US against China and Myanmar, than with economic interest of Bangladesh, as is being touted.
 
Why Tripura?

On October 5, concerned ministers and officials from Tripura and Bangladesh inaugurated a new land custom station at Feni-Belonia border while, within months, at least eight such custom stations are slated to be built along the 856 km. long, largely natural- barrier-free Tripura- Bangladesh border, according to a reliable source.
 

Although four of the northeastern states-Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram – share about 1,879 km border with Bangladesh, the extra priority being accorded to Tripura is for reasons which are purely geopolitical. Besides having accessible borders with Bangladesh, Myanmar-China lines of communication can be choked off from stronger military presence in Tripura alone.

The source says the other mapped out destinations of Bangladesh for uses as conduits for India's military manoeuvres are: Agartala-Dhaka (150 km); Kailashahr-Sylhet (90 km); Sabroom-Chittagong (75 km); Sonamura-Comilla (25 km).

Meanwhile, the Akhaurah land port, only 150 km east of Dhaka and just 5 km west of Tripura capital Agartala, has already been inaugurated as a common border port and is being geared as a major launching pad for trade, and, for troop manoeuvring between mainland India and Tripura via Bangladesh, when needed.

One of the other main undertakings in this grand strategy is to connect Agartala and Kolkata via Bangladesh to reduce over 1500 km distance between the two Indian cities into over 330 km, and, to connect Tripura's Sabroom with Chittagong port.

While the regime in Dhaka may either be ignorant of the consequences of these acts, or is beholden to foreign powers, the message from one of the secessionist leaders of India's Northeast could not be prompter and clearer.

Barely 48 hours before the inauguration of the joint custom station at Feni-Belonia on October 5 by the Shipping and Commerce Ministers of Bangladesh and an Indian counterpart, Ranjan Daimary alias D R Nabla, president of the outlawed National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), said in a statement, "I would like to request the government of Bangladesh to extend helping hands in our struggle for freedom."

In a rare display of emotion by any separatist leader of his likes, Nabla said, "If our people have helped Bangladeshis on all counts for freedom from Pakistan without questioning their legitimacy or whatsoever, it becomes an obligation for the people and the government of Bangladesh too to help us in our freedom struggle against India."

Nabla added, "Particularly, I would like to request the security forces of Bangladesh not to harass or arrest our cadres and members when they sometimes cross to Bangladesh for their safety and security." The rebel leader turned nostalgic when he claimed, "Even my parents had adopted a destitute and hapless young Bangladeshi boy in 1972. His name was Quiddos Mia."

Like many other insurgent groups operating in the troubled region, the NDFB has been fighting for an independent homeland for the Bodo tribe of Assam since 1986 and the statement of Nabla coincided with the celebration of the NDFB's 23 years of founding anniversary.
 
Beijing & Washington

According to Assam Police, Nabla has also appealed last week to the Chinese government for help.

This assertion is reinforced by other sources within India who claim, "Daimary (Nabla) has made a simultaneous request to Beijing to take immediate action "on the basis of recommendations of Zhan Lue of the China International Institute of Strategic Studies (CIISS) who has suggested earlier that India as a whole should be divided into 20-30 nation states on ethnic lines for rapid development and modernization of the region."

Beijing has, however, made it clear that its government has got nothing to do with Lue's theory.

Meanwhile, as the ministers and officials of Bangladesh and India busied themselves in connecting dots at the common borders on October 5, the US embassy in Dhaka declared that the U.S. and Bangladesh military forces would participate in a joint military exercise? along the country's coastal region to increase what the embassy official said counter terrorism capabilities.

Codenamed "Tiger Shark," the military manoeuvre is slated to last through November.

Another US embassy official was quoted earlier for having said, "Units from the Bangladesh Navy and the U.S. military will train on counter terrorism and combating piracy and maritime and coastal threats during this exercise."

Whatever intent the joint Bangladesh-US naval exercise may possess, those who spend valuable times in observing such matters are in no doubt that the exercise carries some message for China and its close ally, Myanmar. It also acquired further importance when, the following day (October 06), Ambassador James Moriarty personally met with Prime Minister Hasina. Although the meeting had apparently produced a message for BNP leaders to join the parliament, in reality, it had much to do with the bubbling geopolitical tension intensifying between India and China, according to sources.

Besides, the military dimension of the upcoming US- Bangladesh exercise is illustrated by the composition of forces from the host nation, Bangladesh, which is known to be preparing its elite Special Warfare Dive and Salvage units to join the manoeuvre.
 
A nuclear Myanmar?

While these dangers lurk around, some observers are getting impatient about the AL-led regime's not being mindful and cognizant of other serious developments which are on the verge of re-shaping the geopolitical landscape of the entire region. One of such events is the recent disclosure that Myanmar is about to test a nuclear device.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported recently that Myanmar appears to be establishing nuclear facilities with help from North Korea and Russia, possibly with the intent of producing nuclear weapons. If true, Yangon's possession of nuclear arsenal will tilt the balance of forces by having in China's side allies like nuclear armed North Korea, Russia, Pakistan, and, perhaps, Iran too.

Quoting two Burmese defectors who had disclosed details of the scheme to an Australian strategic studies analyst, Desmond Ball, and a Thailand-based journalist, Phil Thornton, some reports revealed that Yangon's military regime has secretly constructed a reactor at Naung Laing that would encompass reprocessing technology designed to extract weapon-grade plutonium. Besides, a command and control facility for a nuclear-weapon program was reportedly prepared at a nearby underground location and members of the military nuclear battalion were working in the area, said one of the defectors.
 
Economic mirage

Based on such realities, one can hardly attach any credence to the claim of prospective economic dividend by our government from the hastily arranged connectivity schemes with India's Northeast. Besides, unbridled smuggling aside, official bilateral trade has been on the rise since the coming to power of a caretaker regime in late 2007, resulting in more and more trade imbalance for Bangladesh.

According to an official of the India-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry (IBCCI), total bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh grew from $2.56 billion in 2006-07 to $3.616 billion in 2007-08. While that may seem like a positive thing, the underlying facts are too sobering for Bangladesh, and getting worse further. According to another official of the Bangladesh's Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), "Bangladesh's trade gap with India has increased to $ 2,566.42 million in 2008-09," which include the first six months tenure of the incumbent regime.

This too is prompting many to question further the true intent of the government in rushing toward moves that are

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